Chinese economic data
中国经济数据
Reading China's palm
解读中国的手掌
A new leading indicator for China’s economy
一种新公布的中国经济领先指标。
May 20th 2010 | BEIJING | From The Economist print edition
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2010-5-21 13:09
IN THE back lanes of old Beijing, a fortune-teller inspects his customer’s palm under a magnifying glass, consults his I Ching tables, then scribbles the formulae of fate with a blunt pencil. His customers include many businesen, he says, anxious to know more about their economic prospects.
在老北京的后巷中，算命先生在放大镜下观察其客人的手掌，查看其易经表，接着就用一只削得不尖的铅笔勾画出命脉。他说他的客人包括很多急于想进一步得知其经济前景的生意人。
China’s fortune-tellers now have fresh competition. On May 17th, after four years of research, the Conference Board, a research group, unveiled a new monthly index of leading indicators, which aims to foretell China’s immediate economic future. After sifting through the country’s notoriously patchy statistics, the Board compiled its index from six: the expectations of consumers; lending by banks; the supply of raw materials to industry, as measured by a central-bank survey of firms; the amount of floorspace developers have started to build; and the export orders received and supplies delivered to manufacturers, as measured by a survey of purchasing managers.
中国的算命先生现在有了新的竞争。5月17日，经过4年的研究，研究集团世界大企业联合会公布了一项新的月领先指标指数，这旨在预测中国动态的经济前景。经过对声名狼藉的大量国家统计数据的筛选，世界大企业联合会从六项指标中编辑了该指数。这六项指标为消费者预期、银行放款、根据央行调查公司所得的工业原材料的供应量、开发商开始建造的房产数量、根据购买经理调查所得的制造商收到的出口订单和发货情况。
Because China’s economic present is almost as murky as its future, the Board also released a monthly “coincident” index, which provides a gauge of current activity. This index, based on indicators from electricity generation to passenger traffic, is more timely than the official GDP figure. It is also more volatile, perhaps because China’s official data tend to ooth things out (unlike its fortune-tellers, who can be brutally frank).
由于中国目前的经济几乎与未来的经济一样难以琢磨，世界大企业联合会还发布了提供当前活动情况的月度“巧合”指数，这个指数基于从发电到公共交通的参数比官方的国内生产总值数据更加及时。它也更加具有波动性，或许是因为中国官方的数据更倾向于将波动性抚平（不像其算命先生那样直言不讳）。
The Board has retrospectively calculated its new indices for every month back to 1986. The leading index would have successfully predicted the Chinese recession in 1988-89, as well as the sharp slowdown in 2008. As the Beijing fortune-teller says, “If I can tell you correctly about your past, I can tell you correctly about your future too.”
世界大企业联合会计算了1986年以后每个月的新指数，非常具有启发性。这种主导指数能够成功地预测到1988-89年的中国衰退和2008年的大幅度下滑。正如北京的算命先生所说，“如果我能准确地解读你的过去，我也能准确地预测你的未来。”
So what are China’s prospects? According to official figures, China’s economy grew by 11.9% in the year to the first quarter, raising fears of overheating. The Board’s leading economic index increased a little in March, thanks to the 153m square metres of floorspace started that month. But China-watchers should not read too much into a single month, the Board cautions. In April the authorities clamped down on property speculation. And judged over a six-month period (see chart), Chinese growth is not getting much stronger. As for your correspondent, according to the fortune-teller he will do well financially. But unlike China, he will spend money too liberally to accumulate much wealth.
那么中国的前景如何呢？根据官方的数据，中国经济今年第一季度增长了11.9%，引发了经济过热的担忧。由于3月1.53亿平方米地开工，世界大企业联合会的领先经济指数增加了一点。但是，董事会提醒中国的观察家不应该过度的解读仅仅一个月的数据。4月当局打压了房地产投机。根据6个月的情况判断，中国的增长并没有变得更加强劲。算命先生称，本刊记者有财运。但是与中国不同，他花钱随心所欲，难以积聚很多财富
